Perhaps we are on the verge of witnessing significant shifts within the political spectrum. Will liberals, driven by their disdain for Trump, adopt a more Machiavellian approach, embracing pragmatic decisions they might otherwise avoid?
Meanwhile, will the European Right grow even closer to the U.S., aligning with Trump’s vision and potentially embracing bolder and more controversial policies? These dynamics could redefine the landscape of European politics in the face of transatlantic pressures. Within Europe, calculations are made regarding how to relate to the major power across the Atlantic, and how it will shape its future; whether by coming to its rescue by way of moral and political support or exerting more overt and direct control economically, politically, and militarily in order to keep it from Russia’s sphere of influence, that other major power next door.
Will Trump awaken Europe from its dogmatic slumber, meaning that we may be facing the end of European liberalism and wokism? Or will his administration seek to tighten its grip on a fragmented continent even more? Will European leaders become subservient to an American Caesar, or will they strive to assert their independence? Will they turn into either sycophants, pragmatists, or stubbornly cling to their ideals in a rapidly changing world? Or will they blend these roles, adapting as circumstances require?
Who is the master of whom?
Trump’s election prompted a flood of reactions. Many on the Left responded with dismay, while the Right welcomed the news with enthusiasm. This political divide reflects emerging trends in EU-U.S. relations: for the European Right, Trump’s rhetoric on free speech resonates, which it views as a release from often draconian ‘hate speech’ laws, while the Left views him as an existential threat to progressive values.
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed Trump’s victory on social media, expressing a readiness to work with him while reaffirming his commitment to building a more sovereign and independent Europe. Yet the relationship between European elites and certain American public figures, most notably Elon Musk ( owner of social media platform X, formerly Twitter, and self-professed free speech absolutist), has become increasingly strained.
Musk, through X, has criticized the British government’s dereliction of duty over the Rotherham grooming gang (comprising predominantly Asian men) scandal, arguing this had been covered up because of the perpetrators’ race. He highlights the urge of the new U.S. administration to dismantle liberal-left ideologies, expressing his support for right-wing movements, such as Germany’s AfD. MAGA, it would appear, is turning into MEGA (Make Europe Great Again)—will Europe follow suit?
At any rate, it prompted figures like Thierry Breton, a former European Commissioner, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to accuse Musk of foreign interference—serious allegations that risk souring relations between European leaders and the Trump administration, which has close ties to Musk, who expressed his support for the president-elect during and after the campaign. It shows that, in our current political climate, one effective tweet is another tool in one’s toolbox.
Several prominent European politicians as well as news outlets subsequently left X in protest. France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, even called for the platform to be banned in the EU. Such incidents reveal a deepening rift between Europe’s political elites and influential American figures. A tug-of-war has begun between Europe’s centre-left and the Trump-Musk alliance with its advocacy of the absolute right to free speech.
The European Right, meanwhile, seems to have the upper hand, as a unifying rightist force across the continent becomes a real possibility. With Trump’s support, it could bridge existing divides between the Left and the Right, presenting a counterbalance to the fragmentation in Europe and thus serve as a strategic ally to the Trump administration.
Indeed, drawn by his combative rhetoric, the European Right has grown closer to the U.S. since Trump’s election. Musk has openly supported Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD, and hosted a discussion with her on X. Trump, meanwhile, invited Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo of France’s right-wing party ‘Reconquête’ to his inauguration. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also defended Musk publicly. This alignment between the American and European Right, often eurosceptic in outlook, presents a serious challenge to Europe’s cohesion. Figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán illustrate the dual role these movements play: eurosceptic yet vital to shaping future transatlantic relations. The U.S.’s backing of these groups however risks fracturing Europe itself.
These dynamics highlight a politically fragmented Europe: the Left and Centre focus on strengthening their independence from perceived American domination, while the Right seeks closer ties with Washington. However, this division is an oversimplification. Moderate centrists could yet play a pivotal role in maintaining transatlantic relations. Europe now stands at a crossroads, seemingly undecided about its direction: wokism or American-style free speech?
Balance of power
It is worth considering whether U.S. strategy involves using forceful rhetoric to appeal to a Europe increasingly leaning to the Right. In doing so, Trump could leverage the Right to challenge global liberalism and wokism, potentially weakening resistance from progressive elites. This alignment could help unify a divided Europe under right-wing leadership, strengthening the ties between the U.S. and the EU by empowering right-wing parties and tightening Washington’s influence over the continent.
And concerning those countries which do not now have a right-wing head of state, the search for one is well underway. Musk’s past interest in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has now shifted to firebrands like Tommy Robinson.
Musk’s criticism of Labour leader Keir Starmer over the grooming gangs scandal has weakened the British Prime Minister’s position and, in the near future, could pave the way for such a right-wing leader, aligned with Trump and Musk, to take his place.
This strategy could bolster American leadership in Europe while promoting U.S. economic interests. Since the war in Ukraine, Europe has become one of the largest importers of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), a dependence that grants the US significant leverage. Right-wing parties in Germany, still reliant on Russian gas, may feel compelled to diversify Germany’s energy imports in exchange for a stamp of approval from Washington. Trump’s backing of for example the AfD could thus serve a dual purpose: countering Germany’s historical ties with Russia while promoting American economic interests.
Trump’s recent comments about revisiting the topic of tariffs on European imports further signal an intent to address the €200 billion trade deficit with the EU. Tariffs could serve as a tool to rebalance trade in Washington’s favour, boosting American competitiveness. An alliance between a future Trump administration and Europe’s ascendant right-wing parties might thus deliver mutual benefits: countering “wokism” and rebalancing the economic relationship between the U.S. and Europe.
This evolving metapolitical strategy relies heavily on American soft power, embodied by influential figures like Musk. His endorsement of Eurosceptic and right-wing parties could weaken European sovereignty, pushing policies that favour American interests while exacerbating internal European divisions between Left and Right. Europe would then remain in a state of political indecision, or as Macron previously said, Europe might seek its independence, distancing itself from Trump’s administration. However, it is also possible that Europe could develop a more pragmatic approach, adapting to new realities and pursuing policies that better align with its own interests. Given America's hard power, particularly through its nuclear umbrella, one might wonder if Europe will eventually need to create its own security infrastructure should Trump decide to withdraw from NATO.
American-European relations at a turning point
Europe now faces a moment of decision, caught between two major powers: the U.S .and Russia. Indeed, Russia has issued multiple threats against the Baltic countries, Poland, and the European Union during the ongoing war in Ukraine. These threats include military warnings, particularly targeting NATO members like the Baltics, and the potential use of nuclear weapons if the alliance keeps escalating the war. Russia has also engaged in hybrid warfare, employing cyberattacks and disinformation to destabilize the region. In response, European nations have bolstered their defense strategies and emphasized the need for increased military readiness, with EU leaders calling for greater unity and defense spending to counter Russia’s growing aggression and preserve European security. What path will Europe choose? Transatlantic relations remain crucial, especially in matters of defense. A U.S.-led NATO is still the cornerstone of Europe’s security, and while Trump has criticized low European defense spending, significant progress has been made. Germany and other nations have now met the NATO target of 2% of GDP for defense spending, with Poland inching closer towards Trump’s proposed 5%.
True European autonomy, however, demands more investment in military research and development, as well as improving interoperability between the different national armies making up the alliance. A report from the European Defence Agency highlights the need for sustained and increased investment in R&D and military science to compete with the U.S. and China. Trump’s term could represent a chance for Europe to re-evaluate its strategic priorities. Will Europe step out of the shadow of greater powers, or will it continue to be subject to their designs? Without needlessly alienating either one, it is high time for Europe to assert its autonomy and back it up with investments. For Europe to become resilient, it needs to bolster its economy as well as military while seeking a new political consensus.
What’s next?
Following Donald Trump's inauguration, Europe experienced a clear split in reactions. Right-wing parties, such as Germany's AfD, embraced his return, while left-wing groups voiced concerns over his policies, particularly his stance on climate change and international agreements. Elon Musk's actions, including a controversial gesture (unfairly interpreted as the Roman salute employed by the Nazi’s) at Trump's rally, further deepened the divisions, with some condemning his support for far-right movements in Europe. This situation highlights the growing rift within Europe, as some factions seek stronger ties with Trump's America, while others remain cautious of his influence. As threats against Europe persist, it faces a critical choice, balancing a need for defense, maintaining its sovereignty, as well as addressing its internal divisions. Will the Right submit to the U.S.'s new leadership, using it to challenge the Left? Or will the liberal Left abandon its core principles to hold onto power within the EU, at least for a little while longer?
While Trump’s return could usher in a new era of freedom and relative stability, Europe still faces its moment of decision: whether to wholly submit to U.S. diktat or be willing to criticize this new master across the Atlantic.