No tanks rumble through Warsaw’s streets, yet a coup is unfolding in Poland—a slow, insidious power grab masked as reform. Since the centre-left coalition under Donald Tusk seized power in December 2023, it has wielded “militant democracy” and “transitional justice” as twin battering rams to dismantle judicial independence, media pluralism, and political opposition. Backed by a coalition commanding a slim parliamentary majority, Warsaw has leveraged legislative agility and executive fiat to enact sweeping changes, raising questions about the durability of democratic checks and balances. We are witnessing a preview of how democracies might unravel across Europe and beyond.
During its eight years in power, the government led by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) faced criticism for its alleged violations of the rule of law. Although PiS occasionally overlooked the underlying principles of the law, Tusk's PO outright disregards its explicit wording. While Poles in general do not seem to care much, the government’s popularity ratings took a serious blow nonetheless.
Media, political opponents, and the judiciary
The coup kicked off mere days after Tusk’s government took office on 13 December 2023, with a brazen assault on Poland’s public media. Minister of Culture Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz didn’t just nudge out the old guard—he sacked the presidents of the management boards of Polish public TV, radio broadcasters, and the Polish Press Agency, appointing loyalists in their place.
This was not a subtle reshuffle. It was a frontal attack, sidestepping the National Media Council and defying a Constitutional Tribunal ruling. When pressed on legality, Justice Minister Adam Bodnar shrugged: “We will look for a legal basis later.” This is “militant democracy” in action—curtailing freedoms under the guise of protecting democratic values.
Next, Tusk’s political opponents attracted increasing scrutiny from law enforcement forces. PiS MPs Zbigniew Ziobro, Mariusz Kamiński, Michał Wąsik, and Dariusz Matecki were arrested, some by the police, others by Poland’s Internal Security Agency. These were a calculated strike at PiS’s core, framed as “transitional justice”—a reckoning for alleged abuses during PiS’s eight-year rule. Think South Africa post-apartheid, but without the reconciliation.
The judiciary took the hardest hit. Tusk’s regime has targeted judges appointed after 2017 under PiS, treating them as political lepers. The government ignores Constitutional Tribunal rulings, denies its legitimacy, and flouts Article 178 of the Polish Constitution, which guarantees judicial independence. The Sejm nullified prior resolutions on the National Council of the Judiciary’s makeup, while Bodnar axed court presidents—including the Warsaw Court of Appeals’ head—for their political leanings. The Venice Commission slammed this as a blatant power grab. The European Commission, once hawkish on Poland’s rule of law under PiS, dropped its Article 7 procedure in 2024, emboldening Tusk even more.
President of the Polish Constitutional Tribunal Bogdan Święczkowski accused Tusk of orchestrating a coup d'état by attempting to unlawfully alter the country's constitutional order. Święczkowski filed a 60-page formal complaint with the prosecutor's office. Deputy Prosecutor General Michał Ostrowski launched an investigation on 5 February.
A new order?
Poland’s case should not be regarded as isolated. Europe’s democracies could slide into similar quagmires. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s surging rival Péter Magyar could wield Poland’s tactics to dismantle the Orbán system with the EU ruling class’s blessing. Should he reach power in 2026, expect him to purge courts and media under a “democratic” banner.
In Germany, the mainstream parties, unnerved by the AfD’s relentless rise in the east and its brazen defiance of political norms, could seize Poland’s legalistic playbook to crush their far-right foe. The CDU and SPD might invoke Article 21 of the Basic Law—meant to ban threats to democracy—to outlaw the AfD, cloaking it as a noble echo of Karl Loewenstein’s “militant democracy,” forged in the 1930s to shield Weimar from National-Socialist subversion.
The implications of the upcoming presidential election (18 May 2025) extend beyond Warsaw. The ballot—pitting Civic Coalition’s Rafał Trzaskowski, PiS’s Karol Nawrocki, and Confederation’s Sławomir Mentzen—looms as a referendum on this upheaval. A likely second round on 1 June could lock in Tusk’s vision or shatter it. A week after taking power, Tusk declared, “Everything will be done in respect of the law as we understand it”—an expression of legalism so elastic it could justify anything.
Whilst PiS aligns closely with Trump’s ideological preferences and enjoys implicit backing from his administration, the US is unlikely to intervene in Poland’s internal political conflicts unless American strategic interests face a direct and imminent threat. In recent months, Tusk has skilfully forestalled such concerns by reaffirming Poland’s pledge to dedicate 5% of its GDP to defence expenditure, a commitment that ensures ongoing alignment with NATO priorities, which are important to Trump.
Washington is therefore likely to remain a detached spectator to Warsaw’s evolving constitutional crisis. By June, Poland may quietly crown a new order, draped in the law’s tattered cloak.
Statement
Since Donald Tusk’s centre-left coalition took power in December 2023, Poland has faced a subtle coup, with “militant democracy” and “transitional justice” dismantling judicial independence, media pluralism, and political opposition. Tusk’s legalistic power grab could inspire other European nations to follow, from Budapest to Berlin. The May 2025 presidential election is a ballot to make or break this system. Should Tusk’s candidate - Rafał Trzaskowski - prevail, Poland would cement the start of a new era of regime change through a legal coup.