The Other French Revolution

They held the wedding in a town hall outside Lyon. Her family was Algerian, Muslim, and had been in France for three generations. His was Catholic and from Toulouse. 

It is one of thousands of such intermarriages France rubberstamps each year—about one in four Muslim women now marry outside the faith. And yet, the same week of the wedding, parts of suburban Paris saw riots over race-based policing. While these incidents make headlines, more peaceful indications that France’s ethnic makeup is changing, such as by the aforementioned families’ union, are left ignored. France’s evolving story isn’t being constructed by either violent or peaceable means, but by both at once.

France’s history of immigration mirrors that of much of Western Europe. Since the devastation of World War II had left many European countries without enough labourers, it needed extra pairs of hands for its heavy industry. Migrants came to plug the gap—first from southern European countries, like Spain and Italy, then from its former colonies in North and West Africa. Most were expected to stay only briefly. Only they didn’t. Even as the industries that relied on migrant labor—like steelmaking or textiles—left France, many of the workers stayed. During the three postwar decades of economic growth, immigration accounted for 40% of France’s population increase. What began as a short-term fix became a permanent shift—one that outlived the industries it was meant to support.

Mixing and Mistrust

Getting a clear picture of France’s ethnic and religious makeup is no easy task. The French state is famous for its reluctance in collecting data on race or religion—part of a long-standing belief in its universal, colour-blind republic. Unlike countries in the Anglosphere that track, and often celebrate, the many cultural identities inhabiting them, France has clung to a model of assimilation: wherever you come from, you become French. Still, estimates suggest around one in five people in France today has an at least partly non-European background, mainly Northern or Sub-Saharan African. Roughly 10% of the population is Muslim—likely the highest in Europe.

The age distribution of these groups skews towards the very young. Among descendants of Sub-Saharan African immigrants, 53% are under 15. For those of Moroccan or Tunisian background, it’s close to 44%. By contrast, only 17% of the general population is under 15. These statistics point to a France that will look even more diverse in the decades to come—whether or not the state wants to measure it.

Are we looking at a success story of integration—or a society sliding toward civil war, as a group of retired French generals have warned in an open letter? While that kind of story makes good fodder for pundits, reality is never that simple. On one hand, France has some of the highest intermarriage rates in Europe. About a quarter of French Muslim women marry ethnic French men. No small thing, especially given the cultural pressure many face to marry within the faith. And there’s more: roughly 20% of the French military is Muslim—an overrepresentation when compared to the share of the total population they constitute, and a rarity in Europe.

Managing the Fallout

But there’s another side to this story—and it’s not a pretty one. For the original immigrants from non-European backgrounds, the road has been a rough one. Their descendants still experience difficulties: their jobless rate sits at 13%, well above the national average of 8%, wages are lower, their labour predominantly falls under the low-skilled category, finding housing is a challenge, and they are twice as likely to fall into poverty. In France, if both your parents are immigrants, you’re likely to earn 19% less than someone with no migration background. 

It is perhaps little surprise that riots occur in the banlieues. These are rundown suburbs where unemployment can hit 60%, areas that pundits now casually call “no-go zones.” This is what falling through the cracks looks like.

The ethnic transformation that has taken place across Europe, is an unignorable reality. No country has managed this level of demographic change without friction—and France will be no exception. The road ahead won’t be smooth. But some will manage it better than others. France, for all its turmoil, may just be one of them. Its integration model has its faults—but is also showing hopeful signs of long-term cohesion, given that intermarriage rates are high. The ethnic French population also has relatively high fertility still, unlike for example ethnic Germans. France is not a success story yet, but it might just avoid becoming a cautionary tale. And in today’s Europe, that already sets it apart from the rest.

Statement

France’s ethnic makeup is changing —and so is the discourse surrounding it. One in five now have non-European roots, and 10% is Muslim. Intermarriage rates are high, especially among Muslim women, and its military is notably diverse. But deep social divides remain: unemployment, poverty, and unrest still plague many immigrant suburbs. France’s model of integration is imperfect, but it may work better than most. With its relatively high native fertility as well as interbreeding between ethnic groups, France is better placed than most to avoid civil war.